PITTSBURGH (KDKA) — Yes, it’s early, but pollsters like the Quinnipiac Poll are making some interesting findings.
“Five out of ten Pennsylvania voters say they’re better off financially than they were in 2016,” Quinnipiac polling analyst Mary Snow told KDKA political editor Jon Delano on Wednesday. “However, that’s not appearing to be giving Donald Trump an edge in this contest.”
In a Facetime interview, Snow said even though 54% of Pennsylvanians say they are better off and 71% say the economy is excellent or good, they are not giving the president credit.
In a match-up race, former Vice President Joe Biden beats Trump by 11 points, 53 to 42%.
And Senator Bernie Sanders beats Trump by seven points, 50 to 43%.
Four other Democrats essentially tie Trump in Pennsylvania within the margin of error, including Senator Elizabeth Warren (47%) v. Donald Trump (44%); Senator Kamala Harris (45%) v. Donald Trump (45%); Mayor Pete Buttigieg (45%) v. Donald Trump (44%), and Congressman Beto O’Rourke (44%) v. Donald Trump (46%).
Biden is helped by splitting the male vote (45%) almost evenly with Trump (49%), while getting an overwhelming — 60% — of the women vote to Trump’s 36%.
If the Democratic primary were held today, Biden would defeat all his rivals in Pennsylvania with 39% to Sanders at 13%, Warren at 8%, Harris at 8%, Buttigieg at 6%, Booker at 5%, O’Rourke at 2%, and Klobuchar at 1%.
One thing Democrats do agree on.
“Sixty-one percent say that they believe that Joe Biden has the best chance of beating Donald Trump in 2020,” Snow said.
With the Pennsylvania presidential primary still 11 months away and the presidential election more than a year and a half away, polls like this are very, very, very early.
But they do give a benchmark.
We’ll see in the months to come whether Biden can hold his lead against President Trump or whether other Democrats rise to the surface in the year ahead.